What the German election results mean for the future of cannabis

This piece is written by Deepak Anand and is 858 words or about a 4-minute read.

Analysis: The results of the German federal election strongly indicate a "grand coalition" between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SDP).

For those who have been closely monitoring the polls in recent months, this outcome should not be surprising, as most developments had been anticipated. The main uncertainty leading up to election day was whether the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) would secure seats in the Bundestag.

From the perspective of the cannabis industry, a three-party coalition (CDU/SPD/FDP or CDU/SPD/Greens) would likely have been more favorable than a two-party alliance.

• The CDU had hoped for a dominant victory with over 33% of the vote but ultimately won with 28.5%, falling short of expectations.

• While the SPD suffered a significant loss, securing 16.4%, they still outperformed their final polling numbers (~14.5%).

• Karl Lauterbach, one of legalization’s architects, won his constituency outright and is expected to remain as health minister.

• The CDU has no choice but to form a coalition with the SPD, meaning they will have less leverage in negotiations than anticipated.

• Other pressing issues — such as security, the economy, international conflicts, and migration — have taken precedence in political discussions, reducing the CDU's focus on cannabis policies.

Political Party positions on Cannabis:

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU): While opposing recreational cannabis, the CDU/CSU supports reforms in medical cannabis policy. They advocate for removing barriers such as insurance approval requirements and ensuring therapeutic sovereignty for physicians. However, they criticize the misuse of medical cannabis as a pseudo-recreational market and may push for stricter controls on telemedicine platforms and over prescription.

Social Democratic Party (SPD): The SPD supports maintaining and refining the current medical cannabis framework. They emphasize improving access while ensuring compliance with European regulations. Their policies align with expanding patient access and simplifying the prescription process.

The Greens: Advocates for broader access to medical cannabis, supporting its integration into healthcare systems. They also emphasize international collaboration to improve cannabis-based therapies.

Free Democratic Party (FDP): Strongly supports expanding medical cannabis access, framing it as part of personal freedom and healthcare innovation. They emphasize telemedicine as a key tool for easier patient access while addressing concerns about misuse.

Alternative for Germany (AfD): Opposes recreational legalization but supports limited use of medical cannabis under strict regulations. They focus on abstinence-based health policies and tighter controls to prevent misuse.

The Left (Die Linke): Advocates for full decriminalization of drug use, including expanded access to medical cannabis. They push for reducing bureaucratic hurdles and ensuring affordability for patients.

Medical cannabis: Likely to maintain status quo

Industry stakeholders have actively engaged with key politicians to present alternatives to scrapping CanG (the Cannabis Act) and are confident their arguments have been heard. They will continue advocating during coalition negotiations, and the medical cannabis sector is unlikely to face significant changes besides perhaps a tightening of tele-medicine prescribing.

Recreational cannabis: Uncertainty remains

When it comes to recreational cannabis — home growing, clubs, and pilot projects — the situation is less certain. The SPD is expected to defend their non-commercial gains (decriminalization, home growing, and clubs). However, pilot projects within the Federal Ministry for Food and Agriculture (BMEL) have always been contentious within the SPD, as they were largely driven by the Greens. Since the BMEL is likely to go to the CSU, the future of these projects remains uncertain.

That said, the coalition formation process will take time — at least until Easter, and possibly into May. This gives the BLE at least two more months to make decisions on applications before a new ministry takes over. Companies interested in pilot projects should take full advantage of this window.

What this means for Canadian Cannabis cultivators and operators

The removal of medical cannabis from the narcotics list on April 1, 2024 resulted in the significant growth of Germany’s medical cannabis market. While there is a possibility of stricter regulations on telemedicine under the new government, any changes are unlikely to happen quickly and would not be a priority. Given the current momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised if the German medical cannabis market reaches over 140 tonnes by the end of 2025! (Roughly four times the size it is today).

The new government not proceeding on Pillar 2 — a recreational cannabis pilot program — or even halting any progress on recreational cannabis reform whilst disheartening from a policy perspective would not have any impact on Canadian cannabis cultivators and operators. As a reminder, all international cannabis trade is permitted solely for medical or scientific purposes. 

The true opportunity for Canadian companies continues to lie in selling their products into Germany's medical cannabis market.

Conclusion

Although the election results represent a shift from the previous government's progress on cannabis policy, the outcome could have been significantly worse. A CDU-SPD coalition is expected to uphold the current stance on medical cannabis, though telemedicine regulations may become more restrictive over time.

However, further advancements in recreational cannabis are unlikely to proceed.

Deepak Anand is the principal of British Columbia-based ASDA Consultancy Services, a distinguished global strategic cannabis advisory firm. He can be reached at [email protected].

Edited by Jeremy Berke.