Trump backs rescheduling ➡️ ball in Harris’ court

TRUMP ON POT
Trump supports reschedule and SAFE Banking

What happened: On Sunday night, former President Donald Trump posted a bombshell. He’s for rescheduling cannabis, in line with his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris’s position. 

Trump said he supports reclassifying cannabis to Schedule III, as well as the SAFE Banking Act, a cannabis banking bill that’s repeatedly failed in Congress due mostly to Republican opposition, and will support state’s rights to choose whether or not to legalize cannabis.

His position reads like a laundry list of what the industry asked for and would benefit from. 

That’s likely because it is: The industry has ramped up lobbying efforts among Republicans in recent months and Trump’s team met directly with Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers on Florida’s Amendment 3 and other issues. 

What Trump’s saying: “As I have previously stated, I believe it is time to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use,” Trump said in a post.

“As President, we will continue to focus on research to unlock the medical uses of marijuana to a Schedule 3 drug, and work with Congress to pass common sense laws, including safe banking for state authorized companies, and supporting states rights to pass marijuana laws, like in Florida, that work so well for their citizens.”

Back up: As we wrote last week, Trump’s recent pro-cannabis comments show that he’s trying to steal the issue from Democrats. We now have confirmation of that. 

The Harris campaign hasn’t yet come up with a coherent cannabis strategy to push back. That’s a missed opportunity. It is important to note, however, that cannabis reform is mentioned multiple times in the Democratic National Convention 2024 platform. 

It appears nowhere in the Republicans’ platform. 

What Harris is saying: “Despite his blatant pandering, Donald Trump cannot paper over his extensive record of dragging marijuana reform backward. As president, Trump cracked down on nonviolent marijuana offenses — undermining state legalization laws, opposed safe banking legislation, and even tried to remove protections for medical marijuana,” a spokesperson for the Harris campaign said of Trump’s Sunday night post. 

“Donald Trump does not actually believe in marijuana reform, but the American people are smart enough to see through his campaign lies.” 

Why it matters: We now have two candidates who are competing over their support for legalization. It’s the industry’s best case scenario. We expect, or at least hope, that this comes up in tomorrow’s debate. 

And cannabis stocks loved Trump’s comments. The AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (MSOS) closed up over 11% on Monday. 

Trump’s comments bring him in line with the Democratic position on cannabis. 

It’s perhaps the only issue where there’s less daylight between the two candidates than the candidates have with some members of their own party. 

Cannabis is widely popular. About 70% of Americans, including a majority of Republicans, want federal reform, per recent polls. It’s good politics for the leaders of both parties to be pro-cannabis. 

Though Trump, I should point out, did not endorse full federal decriminalization. On the other hand, Harris sponsored the MORE Act as a senator, which would federally decriminalize cannabis. 

Our take: We think the victory lap some are taking over Trump’s comments is a bit premature. It’s still too early to say whether a Harris or Trump Administration will be better for cannabis. 

If you believe strongly that either would be better, that probably has more to do with your political belief than a rational evaluation of the campaign’s positions. 

I do think the Harris campaign would do well to come up with a coherent position, rather than snipe back. Harris has called for full de-scheduling, though her public campaign issues page does not mention cannabis.

That’s not enough. 

But Trump hasn’t done anything yet other than post. The only examples we can pull from are how his administration treated the industry.

His first attorney general, Jeff Sessions, rescinded the Obama-era Cole Memo which directed the Department of Justice to refrain from enforcing federal law in states that legalized cannabis. So his was a restrictive presidency on cannabis.

In contrast, President Joe Biden, along with Harris, shepherded reclassifying cannabis to Schedule III — perhaps the biggest shift in federal policy toward cannabis in half-a-century. 

But the Schedule III shift still has a long way to go, given the upcoming hearing in December. It may not become law until the next president is in office. 

And Congressional Democrats, despite a lot of talk, have passed too-few significant pieces of cannabis legislation. The SAFE Banking Act, which is about as narrow and passable as cannabis legislation can get, has failed to become law over and over again. 

Trump could very well bring his party in line on cannabis issues. That could be what gets the SAFE Banking Act over the top, though Speaker Mike Johnson and the religious wing may remain holdouts, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

And more: I should also point out that regulatory capture remains a real, if under-discussed issue with cannabis reform, though Trump’s plan is pretty common-sense at first glance. 

I expect anti-legalization groups, as well as some progressive legalization groups, to push back on Trump’s cannabis plan as a corporate handout, rather than social justice-minded reform. Expect to see that talking point in the coming days. 

-JB

Here’s a few selected statements from the industry on Trump’s cannabis comments, edited for brevity and clarity:

• “The time is now to articulate a position on cannabis reform, or the Democratic ticket will be missing out on an issue that polls better than almost anything in our country at this time,” Emily Paxhia, of cannabis investment firm Poseidon Asset Management, said. 

• “We believe cannabis reform is a winning issue. For the first time in history, both major parties support cannabis reform,” David Culver, of the industry trade group US Cannabis Council, said. 

• “Today makes clear that reclassifying cannabis is not a partisan issue. The shift will benefit millions of Americans and mark a clear break from the failed policies of the past,” Adam Goers, of the Coalition for Cannabis Scheduling Reform, said. 

• Anti-legalization group Smart Approaches to Marijuana started a petition to get Trump to reconsider his stance. 

Ron vs Don 🦩
The Republican-led anti-Amendment 3 campaign in Florida continues apace despite Trump’s support for legalization in his adopted home state. Casey DeSantis, Florida’s first lady, said the ballot measure would create a “permanent constitutional right to possess over 100 joints at a time and SMOKE ANYWHERE in Florida—even public places where it could more easily fall into the hands of children,” and added that it’s a “monopoly” amendment, not a marijuana amendment. 

The Vote No On 3 campaign also hit that talking point in a post on X — that the ballot measure isn’t “legalization,” it’s “corporate domination.” Expect to see more of that in the coming weeks. We’d say while it’s true the ballot measure would help Trulieve, it’s biggest corporate backer, it is most definitely a vote for legalization. 

Big beer backs hemp ban 🍺
The Beer Association, one of the largest trade groups representing beer brewers and importers, backed California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s emergency ban on intoxicating hemp. “Intoxicating hemp products are being sold as food and beverages, despite not being deemed safe for the U.S. food supply by federal regulators,” the group said. 

Adams pushes crackdown 🗽
New York City Mayor Eric Adams touted his administration’s ‘Padlock to Protect’ campaign to shut down illicit cannabis shops all over the city. Adams says they’ve padlocked over 1,000 stores and seized over $64 million worth of illicit products in a video.

Sally Duvall, a Democratic candidate for the Texas House, is running on safe, clean, and tested legal cannabis. Watch her ad:

Move over, coffee ☕️
A new study published in the journal Phytochemical Analysis found that Colombia’s environments may have “enormous cultivation potential” for cannabis with high concentrations of uncommon terpenes. Put more simply, Colombia has the right terroir for growing unique, and potentially profitable, cannabis strains.

The top four edibles brands in the US by market share, per New Frontier Data, are:

1. Wyld

2. Incredibles

3. Wana

4. Kiva-Caminos

Columbus suburbs could see first marijuana dispensaries as attitudes on weed shift | Columbus Business First

Harris needs to ‘follow through’ on marijuana legalization, independent presidential candidate Cornel West says | Marijuana Moment

Why Trump is bucking Republican Party bigwigs on pot | Barron’s