States that will lead legal weed, according to an economist 💰

UNITED STATES
Which states will be the biggest money-makers under federal legalization?

Driving the news: Predicting what’s going to happen with federal cannabis policy under President Donald Trump is a fool’s errand, as readers of this newsletter know.

But the industry should understand which state markets are operating effectively — and which will benefit most from full federal legalization, if or when that comes. 

The details: In a report for the University of Nevada, Las Vegas’ Cannabis Policy Institute, economist Robin Goldstein, an expert on cannabis market dynamics, published his Power Rankings for the top markets. 

More specifically, he analyzed the top 25 states based on the per-capita economic potential of cannabis. Goldstein notes that this analysis favors states with smaller populations — and that of course, he brings his anecdotal experiences to bear given the lack of published research on cannabis markets. 

Oklahoma, with its laissez-faire regulations, comes out on top, followed by Oregon, California, Michigan, and Nevada.

Under full federal legalization, Goldstein says that the most profitable legal markets will be ones where cannabis can be grown and sold the most cheaply.

What he’s saying: “America’s most efficient legal weed system made it so easy to get a license that it was temporarily compromised by crime syndicates. This road bump won’t hold back the state’s vast long-term potential,” Goldstein writes. 

“The success of the no-nonsense, small-government approach to weed regulation taken by Great Plains states like #1 Oklahoma and #12 Montana has left wonks in #24 New York scratching their heads and planning vacations to dude ranches.” 

Read more: You can access the full UNLV report here, which goes into much further detail about cannabis pricing trends, future regulatory scenarios, and much more. 

-JB

“Fundamentally, the problem that we have is there’s a misalignment between the tax collection cycle and the actual revenue collection cycle for the operators in the state,” Nicolas Guarino, the cofounder of Jaunty, a New York cannabis company, said on Monday’s Cultivated Live.

Jaunty and other companies are advocating for New York’s cannabis tax collection cycle to be changed to better reflect the realities of the cannabis industry.

You can watch the full segment from yesterday:

Trump’s new Drug Czar 👀

President Trump tapped Sara Carter, a right-wing journalist and Fox News contributor, as the Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) on Friday. Carter, per reporting from Marijuana Moment, has spoken favorably of medical cannabis and said on her podcast last year that she “doesn’t have a problem,” if cannabis is legalized for recreational use. 

Indiana wants to ban cannabis advertising 🌿

Indiana, a state without legal cannabis, borders Michigan, a state with legal cannabis. So Indiana residents get bombarded with ads for an “illegal substance,” according to a state Republican lawmaker. They now want to ban all cannabis-related advertising in the state, reports The Indiana Capital Chronicle.

Curaleaf launches a hemp-derived THC energy drink 🍹

Curaleaf launched Select FormulaX, a hemp-derived THC energy drink with 10 mg of THC and 50 mg of caffeine, equivalent to about half a cup of coffee, the company said. According to the press release, the product is marketed toward “daytime festival goers, extreme sports fans, and e-gamers.”

The Yale Law Journal published a new paper that advocates for the federal government to “abandon its legally problematic rescheduling proposal,” and instead “decriminalize and deregulate cannabis in a manner that ensures minimal interference with state cannabis legalization regimes.” Read it here. 

A few more Q4 earnings reports:

• Medipharm Labs reported a $1.7 million loss on $12 million of revenue. Full results.

• IM Cannabis reported an $11.8 million net loss on $54 million of revenue for the full year. 

• Chicago Atlantic BDC reported $12.7 million of total investment income. 

Wholesale outdoor cannabis prices in California, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington have fallen, converged, and stabilized since 2022. From the UNLV report above.

'Get Dan Patrick out of my medical care': What you told us about Texas' proposed ban on THC | Houston Chronicle

German cannabis exec reflects on 1-year anniversary of recreational policy reform | MJBizDaily

California cannabis company with 16 dispensaries, $100M in revenue collapses | SFGate