Opinion: Can cannabis swing the 2024 election?

Editor’s note: Today’s Sunday Read is an op-ed from the US Cannabis Council’s David Culver on the cannabis politics ahead of Tuesday.

In an ironic twist of history, recently unearthed audio tapes reveal that President Richard Nixon, the architect of the modern war on drugs, privately admitted that marijuana wasn’t dangerous. Despite this, Nixon fueled decades of cannabis prohibition, disproportionately impacting communities of color and laying the foundation for today’s federal cannabis policy.

Fast forward to 2024, and both major party presidential candidates now see cannabis reform as a critical issue, with candidates recognizing its growing importance among voters. In a race as tight as this one, the search for votes is critical. And with former President Donald Trump making in-roads with Black male voters, Vice President Kamala Harris has stepped up her outreach to the pivotal voting bloc, including a push to fully legalize cannabis at the federal level. 

It’s clear the candidates understand that cannabis reform can motivate voters and they’re vying to lock down the cannabis vote. 

Trump recently endorsed Florida’s Amendment 3 to legalize adult-use cannabis, signaling a significant shift in his stance and reflecting the changing attitudes within the Republican Party. His support is framed around states’ rights, pro-business policies, and the medical benefits of cannabis—a far cry from the approach his administration took during his presidency. Trump has also backed federal rescheduling and the SAFE Banking Act, marking cannabis reform as a key component of his campaign strategy.

On the Democratic side, President Biden’s administration initiated the process to reclassify cannabis under the Controlled Substances Act and supports the SAFE Banking Act. Harris jumped into the discussion this month, officially making cannabis legalization at the federal level a central part of her platform as part of a broader appeal to Black men.

Both Trump and Harris have arrived at their positions on cannabis reform through different paths—Trump from a business and public safety perspective, and Harris from a social justice approach. However, both parties now acknowledge that it is time to end prohibition and that addressing cannabis reform could sway crucial voter groups in the 2024 election

Recent polling from Ragnar Research highlights the growing importance of cannabis reform in swing states. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, voters—particularly younger and more progressive groups—are expressing strong support for legalization. This aligns with national trends: new polling in Nevada and Arizona shows cannabis reform resonates strongly with key demographics, including Black men and voters under 35, groups that both parties need to win in 2024.

Given the slim margins in these battleground states, candidates who fail to engage with cannabis reform risk alienating a critical and growing voter base. It’s likely why we’ve seen Trump’s recent pivot and Harris following soon after with her comments that made her pro-legalization position clear.

Embedded within the political implications is the fact that the cannabis industry is a booming economic force. According to the 2024 Vangst Jobs Report, the industry supports over 440,000 jobs nationwide, and in key battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, its economic impact is substantial. 

Michigan, now the nation’s top cannabis market by sales volume, employs more than 46,000 people in the industry. In 2020, the state was decided by just 2.8%—about 154,000 votes. Pennsylvania is similar with the state’s cannabis industry employs 23,402 people, and in 2020, President Biden won Pennsylvania by just over 81,000 votes.  With such narrow margins, the cannabis industry represents a significant voting bloc that could play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.

Recent U.S. Census data further underscores the economic significance of cannabis. Since 2021, cannabis sales have generated $8.7 billion in tax revenue, funding vital public services across legalized states. For voters, the economic benefits of legalization, from job creation to public investments, are hard to ignore—and politicians who fail to address this burgeoning industry may find themselves losing ground.

As the 2024 election approaches, cannabis reform is poised to play a pivotal role in determining the outcome, especially in battleground states. Both parties recognize that cannabis has evolved into a mainstream issue, with broad economic and social implications. They’re centralizing it on their platforms late in the election - October of all months - when the stakes are the highest. The question is no longer if cannabis will influence the election, but how much it will impact the final results.

Candidates who embrace cannabis reform and engage with the industry’s workers, advocates, and supporters may find themselves with a decisive advantage in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. In an election that could be decided by the slimmest of margins, cannabis could very well be the issue that swings the White House.

David Culver is the Head of Public Policy at the US Cannabis Council, an industry trade group.